Wedding Weather Control Station — Park Slope, Brooklyn

Thursday–Saturday, November 5–7

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Day by day

Thursday

Nov 5

58°Low 49°

Chance Rain Showers

Rain chance: 40%; Night 30%
Wind: 10–15 mph; from SW

A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Rain by time of day0.10 in expected

Early1a–7a30%0.04 in

Morning1a–7a30%0.04 in

Afternoon1a–7a30%0.04 in

Evening1a–7a30%0.04 in

Night Mostly Cloudy, low 49°, wind 5–10 mph

Early model read

Could go either way

About 5 in 10 model runs show rain that day. Confidence is low this far out, so expect this to shift.

US model (GFS)15 of 31 runs

European model (ECMWF)25 of 51 runs

The official NWS forecast for Thursday should appear around Friday, Oct 30.

This day has passed.

Friday

Nov 6

58°Low 49°

Chance Rain Showers

Rain chance: 40%; Night 30%
Wind: 10–15 mph; from SW

A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Rain by time of day0.10 in expected

Early1a–7a30%0.04 in

Morning1a–7a30%0.04 in

Afternoon1a–7a30%0.04 in

Evening1a–7a30%0.04 in

Night Mostly Cloudy, low 49°, wind 5–10 mph

Early model read

Could go either way

About 5 in 10 model runs show rain that day. Confidence is low this far out, so expect this to shift.

US model (GFS)15 of 31 runs

European model (ECMWF)25 of 51 runs

The official NWS forecast for Thursday should appear around Friday, Oct 30.

This day has passed.

Saturday

Nov 7

58°Low 49°

Chance Rain Showers

Rain chance: 40%; Night 30%
Wind: 10–15 mph; from SW

A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Rain by time of day0.10 in expected

Early1a–7a30%0.04 in

Morning1a–7a30%0.04 in

Afternoon1a–7a30%0.04 in

Evening1a–7a30%0.04 in

Night Mostly Cloudy, low 49°, wind 5–10 mph

Early model read

Could go either way

About 5 in 10 model runs show rain that day. Confidence is low this far out, so expect this to shift.

US model (GFS)15 of 31 runs

European model (ECMWF)25 of 51 runs

The official NWS forecast for Thursday should appear around Friday, Oct 30.

This day has passed.

Early model reads come from the US (GFS) and European (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts via Open-Meteo, not from the National Weather Service. Each model is run dozens of times with small tweaks, and the bars show how many of those runs produce at least 0.04 inches of rain during the day. More than a week out, storm timing still shifts from run to run, so expect these to move until the official forecast takes over. NWS forecasters explain how they read the models in their forecast discussion.

In the park

Saturday, 12:30–4:30 PM: the chance of rain while you’re there, and the rain before it, which decides how wet the grass and paths will be.

While you’re thereUp to 20%

12 PM20%

1 PM20%

2 PM20%

3 PM20%

4 PM20%

Ground underfootDamp grass

NWS expects 0.20 in from Friday 1 AM to Saturday 1 PM, then about 5 hours under 20% before you get there.

How this is worked out

A rule of thumb, not an NWS forecast: it uses NWS’s rain amount from Friday 1 AM to Saturday 1 PM and the hours under 20% before you get there. Shade, soil and wind change how fast things dry.

Mostly dry: under 0.05 in.
Damp grass: under 0.10 in, or under 0.25 in with 12+ dry hours before you get there.
Soaked grass, muddy trails: 0.50 in or more with fewer than 12 dry hours.
Wet grass, soft trails: anything in between.

Before you get there0.10 in expected

Rain likely until Sat 1 AM and some chance until Sat 7 AM, then about 5 hours under 20% before you get there.

Friday1a–7p40%0.04 in

Friday night1a–7p40%0.04 in

Sat morning1a–7p40%0.04 in

Paved paths dry quickly once the rain stops; grass and dirt trails stay wet much longer.

Hourly Rain Timeline

Chance of rain for each hour, midnight to midnight. Tap or hover a bar for details. The dashed line is 20%, where the NWS starts calling it a “slight chance.” For what’s falling right now, open the live NWS radar.